Hello and welcome to another enticing week of College Football!
My plays this weekend:
Friday:
Pass on all the Friday games - nothing jumps out at me here. If I had to pick one play Id take Boise St -23.5 strictly because they have the best RB in all of college football in Ashton Jeanty, and SDSU is not good at stopping the run. That said, its an awful lot of points to lay and Id rather save the action for Saturday.
Saturday:
North Carolina (-2.5) --- I am a Florida State alum, devoted follower, they are my team, and well, they just stink. Mack Brown is 0-11 lifetime against my Seminoles, and I see him finally getting that coveted 1 in the win column before they send him packing. UNC has sneakily been playing better lately, at least on offense.. and FSU ? Well I guess their only bright spot can be giving some freshman and sophomores some playing time that might compete for a starting role next year. Talk about a fall from grace from last years undefeated regular season. I can easily see UNC covering by a touchdown or more.. FSU just absolutely cannot score against anyone and UNC can put up some points. I see no way how FSU keeps up with UNC's offense... taking the tar heels to easily cover here.
Duke (+20.5) --- Yes, I hate Miami. But this line is disrespectful! Miami has an incredible offense, but Duke has a well above average defense. Dukes offense is nothing to brag about, but neither is Miamis defense. Miami hasnt been covering against most teams this year on their path to this spot.. and I just dont see Miami beating a solid Duke team by 21 or more when they only beat Cal by 1 point, Louisville by 1 score, hell my 1-7 FSU team only scored twice the entire game (their MO this season) and still kept it within the spread. Duke may not win (they might win!) but I just dont see Miami blowing them out of the water by more than 3 touchdowns. Give me the Blue Devils with the points.
Army (-22.5) --- I am taking Army here bc they have been my horse all season. Army hasnt lost a game this year, not even against the spread. Thats right., they are undefeated both in record and ATS. Add in; they won their last 11 games in a row. This is a complete mismatch when it comes to talent. Air Force is the worst of the Military schools, Army is clearly the best. And bc this is a rivalry game, I dont see Army taking their foot off the gas. In years past it was all Run vs Run, but this years Army team is different. They can throw the ball. And their defense is dominant. I dont see Air Force able to put up many points, and I definitely dont see Air Force stopping the Army offense. 22.5 is a ton of points to lay, but how is Air Force going to do anything to stay in this game? They are dominated on both sides of the ball.
Oregon (-14.5) --- A match of this years #1 team vs last years #1 team. Michigan is not even in the same zip code of last years team. They have almost the same offensive ability as Florida State.. which is next to none. Oregon has a very stout defense.. an absolute requite of being labeled the best team in the country. Add on that that Oregons offense is going to score score score. I just dont see where Michigan is going to come up with the points to keep this a game. This isnt last years Wolverines... their best chance is to try to slow down Oregon but that can only last for so long... if Oregon can manage to get to 28 points, which they absolutely should, this is an easy cover. The under might be a reasonable alternative play here with Michigans defense still being solid, they just cant score points to save their lives.
Other leans:
Pitt (+7.5) -- This game should be a shootout, and I see it coming down to a final possession type of deal. Pitt is undefeated and could definitely pull the outright win here, let alone keep it within a touchdown. Ill take +7.5 for sure in what should be a very close game. Maybe the best play is just take the Over and watch these 2 teams light up the scoreboard.
Penn St (+3.5) -- Another game that I just see being very close. Either team could win.. most definitely could be a field goal type game. I dont understand why this isnt an 8 pm "White Out" - it most definitely qualifies as a game that deserves that.. but either way, I see this game coming down to the very end as well, with again a possible dog being the outright winner.
Tennessee (-16.5) -- It seems like Kentucky is just cooked at this point. And Tennessee is looking to make a serious run at the playoffs. Tennessee has a dominant defense, Kentucky has a bad offense. I dont see how Kentucky puts up the points to keep this a game with a Tennessee offense that will be scoring. 16.5 feels like a lot to lay, but if they opponent cant score then you can lay the points. Give me Tennessee.
GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE THIS WEEKEND! -- MAKE SOME $$$$$$
My plays this weekend:
Friday:
Pass on all the Friday games - nothing jumps out at me here. If I had to pick one play Id take Boise St -23.5 strictly because they have the best RB in all of college football in Ashton Jeanty, and SDSU is not good at stopping the run. That said, its an awful lot of points to lay and Id rather save the action for Saturday.
Saturday:
North Carolina (-2.5) --- I am a Florida State alum, devoted follower, they are my team, and well, they just stink. Mack Brown is 0-11 lifetime against my Seminoles, and I see him finally getting that coveted 1 in the win column before they send him packing. UNC has sneakily been playing better lately, at least on offense.. and FSU ? Well I guess their only bright spot can be giving some freshman and sophomores some playing time that might compete for a starting role next year. Talk about a fall from grace from last years undefeated regular season. I can easily see UNC covering by a touchdown or more.. FSU just absolutely cannot score against anyone and UNC can put up some points. I see no way how FSU keeps up with UNC's offense... taking the tar heels to easily cover here.
Duke (+20.5) --- Yes, I hate Miami. But this line is disrespectful! Miami has an incredible offense, but Duke has a well above average defense. Dukes offense is nothing to brag about, but neither is Miamis defense. Miami hasnt been covering against most teams this year on their path to this spot.. and I just dont see Miami beating a solid Duke team by 21 or more when they only beat Cal by 1 point, Louisville by 1 score, hell my 1-7 FSU team only scored twice the entire game (their MO this season) and still kept it within the spread. Duke may not win (they might win!) but I just dont see Miami blowing them out of the water by more than 3 touchdowns. Give me the Blue Devils with the points.
Army (-22.5) --- I am taking Army here bc they have been my horse all season. Army hasnt lost a game this year, not even against the spread. Thats right., they are undefeated both in record and ATS. Add in; they won their last 11 games in a row. This is a complete mismatch when it comes to talent. Air Force is the worst of the Military schools, Army is clearly the best. And bc this is a rivalry game, I dont see Army taking their foot off the gas. In years past it was all Run vs Run, but this years Army team is different. They can throw the ball. And their defense is dominant. I dont see Air Force able to put up many points, and I definitely dont see Air Force stopping the Army offense. 22.5 is a ton of points to lay, but how is Air Force going to do anything to stay in this game? They are dominated on both sides of the ball.
Oregon (-14.5) --- A match of this years #1 team vs last years #1 team. Michigan is not even in the same zip code of last years team. They have almost the same offensive ability as Florida State.. which is next to none. Oregon has a very stout defense.. an absolute requite of being labeled the best team in the country. Add on that that Oregons offense is going to score score score. I just dont see where Michigan is going to come up with the points to keep this a game. This isnt last years Wolverines... their best chance is to try to slow down Oregon but that can only last for so long... if Oregon can manage to get to 28 points, which they absolutely should, this is an easy cover. The under might be a reasonable alternative play here with Michigans defense still being solid, they just cant score points to save their lives.
Other leans:
Pitt (+7.5) -- This game should be a shootout, and I see it coming down to a final possession type of deal. Pitt is undefeated and could definitely pull the outright win here, let alone keep it within a touchdown. Ill take +7.5 for sure in what should be a very close game. Maybe the best play is just take the Over and watch these 2 teams light up the scoreboard.
Penn St (+3.5) -- Another game that I just see being very close. Either team could win.. most definitely could be a field goal type game. I dont understand why this isnt an 8 pm "White Out" - it most definitely qualifies as a game that deserves that.. but either way, I see this game coming down to the very end as well, with again a possible dog being the outright winner.
Tennessee (-16.5) -- It seems like Kentucky is just cooked at this point. And Tennessee is looking to make a serious run at the playoffs. Tennessee has a dominant defense, Kentucky has a bad offense. I dont see how Kentucky puts up the points to keep this a game with a Tennessee offense that will be scoring. 16.5 feels like a lot to lay, but if they opponent cant score then you can lay the points. Give me Tennessee.
GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE THIS WEEKEND! -- MAKE SOME $$$$$$
